Over the past few days, we’ve been taking a closer look at mortgage rates and what they may mean for buyers and sellers in the Las Vegas real estate market.
In our first blog, we looked at how the spread between the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield has narrowed significantly since 2023.
In our second blog, we stepped back even further and looked at more than 50 years of history showing how closely mortgage rates and the 10-Year Treasury have generally moved together.
Today, we’re continuing that conversation with another chart shared through Keeping Current Matters (KCM).
This time, we’re looking at mortgage rates themselves—and the historical perspective may surprise some buyers.
How Unusual Were 2% and 3% Mortgage Rates?
For anyone who purchased or refinanced a home around 2020 or 2021, mortgage rates in the 2%–3% range may have started to feel normal.
Historically, they weren’t.
The chart above tracks the weekly 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate going all the way back to 1971.
Keeping Current Matters breaks that history into three general ranges:
- Below 5% — Historically Low Rates: approximately 20% of the time
- 5%–10% — Historically Normal Rates: approximately 60% of the time
- Above 10% — Historically High Rates: approximately 20% of the time
That’s an important perspective.
For the majority of the past five-plus decades, mortgage rates have been between approximately 5% and 10%.
The extraordinarily low rates experienced several years ago were exactly that—extraordinary.
The Pandemic-Era Mortgage Market Wasn’t Normal
Look at the far-right portion of the graph.
Mortgage rates dropped below 3% around 2021 before climbing rapidly during 2022 and 2023.
Those ultra-low rates created an interesting situation in today’s housing market.
Millions of homeowners were able to lock in historically inexpensive mortgages. Understandably, many are reluctant to give those loans up.
This has been one of the factors influencing housing inventory in recent years.
But there’s another important lesson for buyers:
Waiting for 2% or 3% mortgage rates to return could mean waiting for something that historically has been extremely uncommon.
Nobody knows exactly where rates will be next year—or five years from now. But more than 50 years of mortgage history gives us valuable context.
Connecting Our Three Mortgage Rate Blogs
Taken together, the three charts we’ve reviewed tell an interesting story.
First, we saw that the spread between mortgage rates and the 10-Year Treasury has narrowed from approximately 3.19 percentage points in mid-2023 to about 1.88 points in July 2026.
Second, we looked at more than 50 years of data showing that mortgage rates and the 10-Year Treasury have historically moved closely together, with an average spread of approximately 1.76 percentage points.
Now, we’re looking at the actual history of mortgage rates and seeing that rates below 5% have occurred only about 20% of the time during the period shown.
Put those three pieces together and we get some valuable perspective:
Today’s mortgage rates may feel high compared with 2020 and 2021, but historically, the ultra-low rates of that period were the unusual part.
That doesn’t mean buyers should ignore today’s rates. Affordability matters tremendously.
It simply means today’s real estate decisions should probably not be based on the assumption that 2% or 3% mortgages are right around the corner.
What Does This Mean if You’re Looking for a Home in Las Vegas?
If you’re Looking for a Home in Las Vegas, mortgage rates should absolutely be part of your decision—but they shouldn’t necessarily be the entire decision.
Consider the complete picture.
What can you comfortably afford?
What inventory is available?
Are sellers negotiating?
Are there opportunities for seller concessions?
What financing programs might be available?
How long do you expect to own the home?
And perhaps most importantly:
Does buying a particular property make sense for your life and financial situation today?
At Alpha II Realty, we also work with lenders in the Las Vegas area who can help prospective buyers better understand current mortgage programs, payments, and financing options.
Getting information doesn’t obligate you to purchase a home. It simply gives you better information for making your decision.
Sellers Should Pay Attention Too
This historical perspective isn’t just for buyers.
Mortgage rates influence buyer purchasing power, and purchasing power can influence demand.
But sellers also need to remember that real estate is local.
National mortgage rates might be the same across the country, but inventory, pricing, competition, and buyer demand can be very different from one community to another.
What’s happening in Summerlin may not be exactly what’s happening in Henderson, North Las Vegas, Spring Valley, Enterprise, Southern Highlands, or another Las Vegas Valley neighborhood.
That’s why understanding your specific market matters.
Don’t Compare Every Market to 2021
One of the biggest challenges in today’s housing market may simply be expectations.
Buyers remember extremely low mortgage rates.
Sellers remember rapidly rising home prices and intense buyer competition.
But markets change.
Rather than waiting for the conditions of 2021 to return, buyers and sellers may be better served by understanding the opportunities available in the market we have today.
Ask Alpha II Realty About the Local Las Vegas Market
National information from Keeping Current Matters helps us understand the bigger housing and economic picture.
But your real estate decision happens right here in Southern Nevada.
Alpha II Realty has been serving the Las Vegas community since 1981, and we can research current listings, recent sales, inventory, pricing, neighborhood activity, and other market information based on your individual needs.
Whether you’re Looking for a Home, considering selling, or searching for the Best Realtor in Las Vegas to help you navigate the market, we’d be happy to talk with you.
Ask us what’s happening in the Local Las Vegas Market.
Contact Cristine Bullard, Broker, with Alpha II Realty for any real estate questions.
Chart shared through Keeping Current Matters. Data source identified on the chart: Freddie Mac.